An expected-goals model prices win, draw, away, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score for every fixture it covers. We graded it against 1,014 finished matches and published what came back — including where it falls short.
No betting tips and no claim to beat the market — we tested that, and it does not. Here is what we found.
Live from the model. Bars show win / draw / away; the pair of numbers is expected goals.
Every published forecast is stored before kickoff and scored after the final whistle. Against bookmaker prices on the same 1,014 matches, the model picked more winners and was twice as well calibrated — and their probabilities were still sharper overall. All three numbers are here because the third one matters too.
Out-of-sample on the 2026 season across Argentina, MLS, Brazil, Norway and Sweden. Lower is better for calibration error and log loss.
This is the only test that matters for a probability, and it is the one nobody shows you. Each band holds every published selection in that range, with what actually happened next to it.
29
Leagues priced
3
Markets per match
1,014
Matches graded so far
0
Tips sold
Every fixture we cover, every market, on web and mobile. One tier — no locked leagues, no upsell, and nothing sold as a tip.
Create your account